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AOT: With current paving budget, 'very poor' roads could rise to 48% in 10 years; bridges show mixed outlook
Summary
Agency of Transportation staff told the House Transportation Committee that, under current paving funding levels, pavement conditions would deteriorate substantially over the next decade and that bridge conditions are less responsive to annual investments, with differing targets for interstate, state and town bridges.
Jeremy Reed, chief engineer for the Vermont Agency of Transportation, told the House Transportation Committee on Feb. 26 that the agency’s pavement and bridge condition projections show worsening network condition under the current funding plan.
Reed described the agency’s measurement approach: the pavement composite index (PCI) is calculated from data collected on five‑hundredths‑of‑a‑mile segments that include ride (roughness), rutting and two types of cracking, then translated into a 0–100 index and assigned condition labels (80–100 good, 65–80 fair, 40–65 poor, below 40 very poor). "We get a data point for every 5 hundredths of a mile," Reed said.
At today’s buying power for paving—$103,000,000—the agency reported a travel‑weighted average PCI of roughly 74 and said the share of pavement in "very poor" condition would rise over the next 10 years to about 48 percent under current assumptions. Reed said the agency’s long‑standing performance measures aim to keep no more than 25 percent of the roadway network in very poor condition and to maintain a travel‑weighted average of 70 or better; under the presented funding scenario the network would fall below those targets within the next decade.
"We wanna maintain no more than 25% of our roadway network is in very poor condition," Reed said, describing the agency’s performance goals and how the travel‑weighted measure reflects user exposure.
On bridges, Reed said Vermont has about 2,800 structures longer than 20 feet; roughly 1,100 of those are on VTrans‑owned roads and 314 are on the interstate. The agency applies Federal Highway standards and square‑foot weighting when reporting bridge condition. Reed noted that bridges are less responsive to annual investments than pavements because of their longer life cycles; larger investments are typically required to make a statistical change in bridge condition.
Reed reported current interstate bridges as roughly 7 percent in poor condition against a 6 percent performance target and said planned projects should reduce poor interstate condition over time. State bridges have a 10 percent target for poor condition and town bridges a 12 percent target; under current funding the agency projects increases in poor condition but generally expected to remain under those targets for the time horizon shown.
Michelle Boomhower, speaking on rail and aviation, described those programs as heavily dependent on competitive grants. "Rail and aviation is almost fully dependent on competitive grants," she said, noting large projected grant awards in later years would materially change spending profiles but would not necessarily increase highway‑specific work.
Committee members asked about rockfall and culvert work, which the presentation did not model in the same predictive way as pavements and bridges; Reed said there is not a dedicated pot of money for rockfall stabilization or large culvert upsizing and that such projects are handled within existing roadway or bridge programs.
Ending: Reed and agency staff said the network outlook frames a difficult choice between preserving near‑term project delivery and accepting longer‑term deterioration absent increased or reallocated funding.
