Buckeye receives regional economic outlook that flags housing affordability and workforce challenges

Jim Rohn, president and CEO of Rohn's Consulting Group, told the City of Buckeye council during a Feb. 4 workshop that the national, state and local economies remain fundamentally positive but face notable uncertainties and structural challenges.

Rohn said housing affordability and workforce supply are the biggest near-term issues for communities such as Buckeye. He urged cities to weigh public policy decisions with business principles — treating public investments like projects with measurable returns — and to consider nontraditional incentives and land-use strategies to free up lower-cost housing.

“Overall, still very optimistic about the region, about the state,” Rohn said, while cautioning that “there's additional uncertainty coming up” tied to federal stimulus timing, inflation and labor-market shifts. He noted past federal spending and unusual business-cycle dynamics have left price levels elevated even as inflation moderates, which earlier boosted sales-tax receipts and now limits further automatic revenue gains.

Why this matters: Rohn’s comments outline constraints that affect Buckeye’s long-term planning and near-term budgets. Rising home prices, tighter labor supply and construction-cost inflation influence whether the city can expand infrastructure, attract employers and keep the cost of services affordable for residents.

Rohn summarized national indicators and Arizona-specific fiscal issues and repeated several policy recommendations he said are useful when communicating with state lawmakers: present economic-development proposals with a clear return-on-investment case, prioritize workforce lifting at every education level, and consider revenue structures that capture growth without sudden tax shocks.

On housing, Rohn said much of the recent price escalation is driven by macro factors beyond local control. He suggested local and regional tactics, including converting underused commercial footprints (for example, older strip malls) by freezing the existing property tax base and using the incremental tax yield of denser multifamily development as a developer incentive. He described the idea as an “intelligent version of TIF,” noting politics will shape whether such a tool can pass at the state level.

Rohn also urged cities and the state to examine how student housing, dorms and other institutional projects could increase overall housing supply without direct city expenditures. He described a “golden handcuffs” effect in which favorable existing mortgage rates reduce turnover and block movement up the housing ladder, compressing supply at lower price bands.

Workforce and education were a recurring theme. Rohn said Arizona needs gains at every skill level — high-school completion, associate and technical credentials, bachelor’s degrees and advanced training — not a single-track response. He recommended expanding dual-enrollment, internship and apprenticeship programs and adding workforce-focused guidance counselors in high schools.

Rohn flagged immigration and population inflows as additional demand-side pressures on housing and said policymakers should consider immigration’s role in labor supply planning. He also suggested targeted programs to keep highly skilled older workers partially engaged rather than fully retiring.

On state fiscal policy, Rohn described a recent state budget swing from a projected shortfall to a modest surplus and said the state’s rainy-day fund (which he and his team have recommended growing) provides a buffer for a mild recession. He recommended modest targeted use of the rainy-day balance to preserve economic-development programs rather than cutting workforce or higher-education investments.

Council members asked about rental markets, tariffs, labor-force participation and local infrastructure topics such as the Buckeye Airport; Rohn answered that rents and ownership costs have both risen, that tariffs are a mixed short-term factor for nearshoring, and that the city should plan airport-related incentives carefully.

Ending: Rohn offered to share underlying data and to continue brainstorming with Buckeye staff on housing, workforce and infrastructure strategies. He also encouraged the city to coordinate local initiatives with state-level reforms to increase the odds of producing lower-cost housing and a larger, better-trained labor pool.