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Superintendent presents Stanford projections showing multi‑year enrollment decline; Patterson reopening put on hold
Summary
Superintendent Matt Hilton told the board that Stanford Associates’ five‑year projections, driven by falling Lenawee County birth rates, expect smaller incoming kindergarten classes and a continued overall enrollment decline; board discussion will continue in committee before any decision on reopening Patterson Elementary.
Superintendent Matt Hilton on Monday presented enrollment projections from Stanford Associates showing a sustained decline in school‑age children that the district must consider before investing in reopening Patterson Elementary.
The consultant’s analysis, Hilton said, used Lenawee County birth‑rate data beginning in 2005 and district historical enrollments to project incoming kindergarten (young‑fives) classes and systemwide enrollment over the next five years. Lenawee County births have fallen roughly 30 percent from their peak, Hilton said, and Tecumseh Public Schools is currently capturing roughly 20–22 percent of the county’s kindergarten cohort. District enrollment for…
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