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Superintendent presents Stanford projections showing multi‑year enrollment decline; Patterson reopening put on hold
Summary
Superintendent Matt Hilton told the board that Stanford Associates’ five‑year projections, driven by falling Lenawee County birth rates, expect smaller incoming kindergarten classes and a continued overall enrollment decline; board discussion will continue in committee before any decision on reopening Patterson Elementary.
Superintendent Matt Hilton on Monday presented enrollment projections from Stanford Associates showing a sustained decline in school‑age children that the district must consider before investing in reopening Patterson Elementary.
The consultant’s analysis, Hilton said, used Lenawee County birth‑rate data beginning in 2005 and district historical enrollments to project incoming kindergarten (young‑fives) classes and systemwide enrollment over the next five years. Lenawee County births have fallen roughly 30 percent from their peak, Hilton said, and Tecumseh Public Schools is currently capturing roughly 20–22 percent of the county’s kindergarten cohort. District enrollment for 2024–25 was reported at about 2,316 students.
Why it matters: the board has discussed Patterson as a potential facility to reopen, but reopening would require an estimated $1.5 million in immediate capital work, Hilton said; that estimate does not include recurring operating costs such as utilities, staffing, busing and food service if the building were returned to active use. Given the projection of smaller incoming classes (Stanford’s baseline assumes schools‑of‑choice inflows and outflows remain stable), Hilton urged the board to weigh long‑term fiscal responsibility against space needs.
Board members pressed for more detail. Trustee Darren Miller asked for cohort tracking to see how many students who began in kindergarten stayed through graduation; Hilton said he has related data at aggregate levels and will provide additional transition and transiency figures. Trustee Brooks and others noted pockets of student growth at some neighboring districts and the practical effect of schools‑of‑choice: Hilton said he identified at least 38 kindergarten‑age children who live in the Tecumseh district but were enrolled in nearby Clinton Public Schools.
Hilton described a planned outreach effort to stabilize and grow enrollment: website upgrades, promotional videos, preschool/kindergarten roundup events, targeted social media, and school tours beginning in mid‑ to late‑February. He said families typically begin school shopping in February–April and that central office and building leaders will coordinate recruitment efforts.
The superintendent emphasized that no action on Patterson was required that night; he intends further discussion in Budget & Facilities committee and additional full‑board reports before any formal vote.
Ending: Hilton called the Stanford analysis “a benchmark” to guide discussion rather than an immediate directive. Trustees asked staff for follow‑up materials on cohort retention, FTE versus headcount reporting, and the budget amendment expected at the February meeting to reflect grant changes in instructional staffing lines.
