Aging population and housing shortfall driving Vermont public school enrollment decline, presenter says

Kevin Chiu, executive director of the Vermont Futures Project, told the Center of Education Committee on Feb. 20 that Vermont’s aging population and a shortage of housing are reducing public school enrollment and will raise per‑pupil costs unless officials change policy.

Chiu said the state has lost almost 30,000 people in the 25‑to‑49 age cohort since earlier decades and that Vermont’s fertility rate is the lowest in the nation. “Data isn’t destiny,” Chiu said, adding that policy choices could put the state on a different trajectory.

The presentation linked demographic shifts to enrollment and workforce trends. Chiu said public K‑12 enrollment has declined by “over 20,000 students” in the past 20 years and that National Center for Education Statistics projections show further declines through 2031. He told the committee the state could see about a 3,000‑student drop in the next five to six years if…