Vermont study: cap-and-invest for transportation would cut emissions but likely miss 2030 target; start realistically 2028

Vermont state officials presented findings Feb. 20 from a technical study on whether the state should join an existing cap-and-invest program for transportation fuels, concluding the policy would reduce emissions and raise significant revenue yet is unlikely to meet the state’s 2030 statutory target by itself.

The study, led by consultants with Cambridge Systematics and subcontractor Resources for the Future and presented to the Joint Senate and House Transportation Committee by a state presenter identified as Chris, analyzed options for Vermont to align with the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) or a New York cap-and-invest program, reviewed sectoral coverage, and modeled a range of allowance prices and reinvestment scenarios.

The study’s main conclusion: cap-and-invest would move Vermont toward the emissions reductions required by the Global Warming Solutions Act but — even under higher-price, broad-coverage scenarios and aggressive reinvestment — “we do not hit the 2030 required level,” the presenter said. The analysis shows larger emission reductions by the early-to-mid 2030s under many scenarios, and greater progress by 2050 if the program has a high allowance price and covers multiple sectors.

Officials emphasized revenue and household-impact tradeoffs. The study modeled allowance prices near current WCI trading levels (about $30 per metric ton) and a WCI price cap near $60 per ton, while noting New York has proposed a…