Commission adopts fund‑estimate assumptions for 2014 STIP; staff to present draft fund estimate next meeting

The Transportation Commission approved updated assumptions that staff will use to prepare the 2014 State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) fund estimate.

Staff said it revised growth assumptions after incorporating Board of Equalization tax‑rate updates, Department of Finance forecasts and the California Air Resources Board’s emissions modeling. Federal MAP‑21 receipts for the first year are now included as a baseline and the team recommended holding federal revenues level through the fund‑estimate period for conservatism. Staff also placed a modest budget‑change reservation ($75 million over the period, equivalent to roughly $5 million per year to the department) to reflect expected fluctuations during a 0‑based budgeting process.

Commissioners approved the assumptions so staff can complete and present the draft fund estimate at the next meeting; staff said the assumptions will be updated again if the state May revision or the final enacted 2013–14 budget produces material changes.

Why it matters

The fund‑estimate assumptions drive STIP capacity and project programming for the next multi‑year cycle; conservative but realistic revenue assumptions reduce the risk of overprogramming and the need to rescind allocations later.

Provenance

topicintro: "I presented the draft fund estimate assumptions at the last meeting..." (staff presentation excerpt)

topicfinish: "All those in favor? Aye. Opposed? Motion passes." (vote on assumptions)

Ending

Staff will prepare a draft fund estimate based on the approved assumptions and return for commission review at the next meeting.