Finance director’s long‑term model flags budget pressure; council discusses foregone, police staffing and capital timing

Doug Racine presented the City of Nampa’s long‑term financial forecast at a council workshop, showing multi‑year scenarios in which expenses could outpace revenues and producing a projected annual gap of roughly $2 million by 2030 under conservative assumptions.

Doug Racine (finance presenter) said the model uses historical trends and produces two bounding scenarios: a dollar‑growth scenario and a percentage‑growth scenario. Under the percentage‑growth scenario revenues grow more steeply and could reach a higher outcome; under the dollar‑growth scenario revenues are flatter. Racine told council the model puts General Government revenues and spending on trajectories that, if current trends hold, could leave the city with a recurring shortfall in the coming five years.

Why the forecast matters: staff tied the projections to real decisions council will face in the FY2026 budget cycle — police staffing, capital projects and whether to use levy “foregone” authority to add ongoing revenue. Racine and councilors discussed staffing needs and service priorities and asked staff for clearer, earlier capital project and fund‑balance documentation when projects come to council.

Key points from the presentation and council discussion: - Long‑term scenarios: Racine showed multi‑year revenue scenarios that diverge depending on whether growth is trended by fixed dollar increases or by percent increases; he said that divergence could mean millions of dollars of difference by 2030. (Staff presented example scenario ranges for discussion.) - Projected gap: under a conservative projection staff estimated an annual gap on the order of $2,000,000 by 2030 if revenue growth and expense growth follow recent patterns. - Revenue drivers: property tax is the largest single General Government revenue source; state shared sales tax and transfers from enterprise funds were also highlighted. Racine noted timing lags in property tax collection that affect budgeting. - Capital budgeting and timing: staff flagged years with large capital budgets and noted past over‑budgeting in 2022–23; Racine asked council to consider tighter capital budgeting in future cycles and to weigh project timing against the city’s staffing and project‑management capacity. - Water rates and projects: staff said water rates have not increased in the last three years and that ARPA funds were used to support several water projects; Racine signaled a possible need for a rate action in 2026 depending on project funding and timing. - Health insurance and fund balance: council was warned that rising health‑care claims have increased costs and that the city drew down about $2,000,000 from fund balance in the past two years to cover health and other pressures. - Police staffing and options: Racine said police‑related labor and benefits account for a substantial share of recent labor increases; council discussed the option of using levy foregone to generate ongoing revenue to meet staffing targets. Racine estimated a foregone option could yield an amount on the order of $420,000 (figure cited as illustrative during discussion). He also noted that other extreme budget actions could fund staffing but would have trade‑offs in services. - House bill and levy impacts: council discussed a previously enacted state House bill that council members said has reduced recurring local revenue flexibility and lowered the levy base; staff did not provide a full statewide fiscal analysis in the meeting and said the precise dollar impacts were not specified in the presentation.

Council direction and next steps: members asked staff to present capital project funding sources more clearly when projects come to council, and to provide additional scenario analysis ahead of summer budget workshops. Councilmembers agreed to schedule additional budget‑planning sessions and to review options (including foregone) before finalizing the FY2026 budget.

Racine closed by urging measured, proactive decisions rather than reactive cuts, and by offering staff support for a series of focused budget workshops in the weeks before council’s formal budget hearings.