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Committee reviews capacity update, adds five temporary category‑1 schools and outlines GIS forecasting plan
Summary
Facilities staff presented updated ADM and utilization forecasts, temporarily placed five new elementary schools into Category 1 transfer limits for one year to let attendance realignments settle, and described new indoor GIS tools for more granular capacity forecasting.
Facilities staff presented the committee with a refreshed capacity report that lists current average daily membership (ADM), utilization rates and a forecast for the next school year, and the committee discussed how that data will guide transfers, modular placement and future construction.
Joe Burch told the committee staff included the two new elementary schools and related realignment impacts in the report. To limit transfer movement while attendance areas settle, staff temporarily applied Category 1 transfer restrictions to five elementary schools in the Carolina Forest attendance area — Carolina Forest Elementary, Ocean Bay Elementary, Pine Island Elementary, River Oaks Elementary and Tin Oaks Elementary — and said the total number of Category 1 (red‑zone) schools for the coming year would be 25, which includes those five temporary additions.
Burch explained the Category 1 designation restricts in‑district transfers to help the district realize the intended relief from opening new facilities. "We felt that this year was important to hold firm, hold them at red zone, let the attendance line realignments work itself out," he said.
Staff also reported that Midland Elementary, Myrtle DeBeese Primary and Myrtle Beach Elementary met or exceeded the 95 percent utilization threshold and were added to the Category 1 list; Whittemore Park Middle and other recently opened sites that had one‑year status will roll off as appropriate. Socastee High dipped below 95 percent (reported at 94 percent) and will be monitored; staff said they may revisit Socastee in the spring if transfers increase.
Committee members asked about how the district counts capacity. Burch confirmed the capacity figures in the report reflect permanent facility capacity only and do not include modular classrooms. "If we included modulars... suddenly they wouldn't seem to have a problem," he said, noting modulars are tracked separately in planning and are used to provide short‑term relief.
Longer term, staff described new indoor GIS and mapping tools that will allow planners to model small geographic areas and forecast five‑ to ten‑year enrollment changes, test attendance‑line adjustments and evaluate the effects of local residential development. Patrick Rose, the district GIS coordinator, was named in the discussion as the staff lead for those mapping efforts.
Members urged continued liaison work with local governments to ensure planning and development maps inform school forecasts and construction plans. The committee did not take a vote on the capacity report itself; staff said they will continue to monitor enrollments and return with recommendations as warranted.
