The Office of Accountability and Efficiency presented a five‑year financial forecast for the Milwaukee School District showing that although referendum revenue and a $3.25 per‑pupil annual increase provide a revenue lift, projected expenditure growth outpaces revenue and produces a multi‑year shortfall.

Matt Chase of the Office of Accountability and Efficiency said the forecast incorporates the referendum and an annual $3.25 per‑pupil lift, and assumes a roughly 500‑student annual enrollment decline. Using those assumptions, the presentation estimated an increase in revenue of just under $155 million over five years and an increase in expenditures of about $212 million, leaving a difference of roughly $57 million in the near term and a cumulative structural deficit of about $145 million over the five‑year horizon.

Chase described the assumptions used in the model: salaries growing from steps, lanes and consumer price index (CPI) assumptions with CPI returning to about 2.5 percent in the short term and 2 percent longer term; medical cost inflation at 3 percent; prescription costs at 8 percent; Medicare Advantage costs at 4 percent; and supplies and services inflation at 3.5 percent. Nick Cinderam noted the forecast reflects operations fund projections and cautioned that rising grant costs or other changes would require separate adjustments.

“This is probably the least bleak five‑year forecast that we have collaborated to produce on behalf of the district,” Chase said, adding that structural challenges remain despite the revenue lift.

During public comment, Quintin Clayvon, a member of the public, urged the district to use more conservative enrollment loss assumptions. “In the last 20 years, Milwaukee Public Schools lost more than 500 students every year but three,” Clayvon said, and asked the district to consider scenarios with 1,000 students lost per year when planning.

Director questions focused on the forecast’s assumptions and how special education and other mandated costs are reflected. Nick Cinderam explained the role of fund balances as a district’s reserve and said the administration will identify special education–related projects and costs in forthcoming budget documents to give the public clearer information about special education expenditures.

The forecast was informational; no formal action was required. Officials said the forecast will inform the spring budget development, public presentations and potential future discussions about structural budget changes.