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MGT forecast: district to see modest enrollment decline; kindergarten capture rate steady
Summary
MGT demographer Marcy Horner presented a 10-year forecast showing a gradual decline in resident students driven by lower birth cohorts and modest changes in retention; the consultant said district housing projects total about 304 units spread over 10 years and that the district could see a 5.5% decrease in the next five years.
Marcy Horner of MGT (formerly Davis Demographics) presented Albany County School District #1 trustees with the final year of a three-year forecasting contract and a 10-year student enrollment projection.
Horner said the forecast is built from student-address data, birth counts, mobility (cohort survival) and student-yield factors for planned housing. She told trustees the district had 291 kindergarten students in the most recent year and that the kindergarten capture rate—what share of resident…
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