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BOCES study forecasts modest decade-long enrollment decline for Baldwin UFSD
Summary
Western Suffolk BOCES presented a demographic and enrollment study to the Baldwin Union Free School District that projects a district enrollment decline from 4,340 (2023) to about 4,166 by 2033, identifying lower birth rates and an aging resident population as key drivers.
Dr. Christina Vagenis of the Western Suffolk BOCES Office of School Planning and Research presented an enrollment and demographic study to the Baldwin Union Free School District Board of Education on Feb. 12, 2025, projecting the district’s K–12 enrollment to decline from 4,340 students in 2023 to about 4,166 by 2033.
The study, which the presenter said uses birth rates, housing turnover, population age structure and nonpublic/charter enrollments, showed the district’s peak enrollment of 4,785 students in 2013, a drop to 4,340 in 2023 and a projected net loss of about 174 students over the next decade.
BOCES emphasized that several demographic…
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