BOCES study forecasts modest decade-long enrollment decline for Baldwin UFSD

Dr. Christina Vagenis of the Western Suffolk BOCES Office of School Planning and Research presented an enrollment and demographic study to the Baldwin Union Free School District Board of Education on Feb. 12, 2025, projecting the district’s K–12 enrollment to decline from 4,340 students in 2023 to about 4,166 by 2033.

The study, which the presenter said uses birth rates, housing turnover, population age structure and nonpublic/charter enrollments, showed the district’s peak enrollment of 4,785 students in 2013, a drop to 4,340 in 2023 and a projected net loss of about 174 students over the next decade.

BOCES emphasized that several demographic factors underlie the projection. “Nassau County recorded 16,260 births in 2001. Since then, births have declined 12.7% with 14,199 births recorded in 2021,” Vagenis told the board. She also noted the district’s median age rose from 40.5 years in 2010 to 42.1 in 2020 and that home sale prices increased substantially between 2012 and 2022.

Board members and staff pressed for context and local detail. Board member Miss O’Hagan asked whether the patterns shown were typical across Long Island; Vagenis replied that “most districts that we’re working with are showing a decline” and that a few upstate districts are gaining students. When asked about private-school enrollment and students served outside the district, the board said more detailed data appear in the full report the district receives.

The presentation broke the projections into grade bands: K–5 was projected to lose roughly 79 students over the decade; grades 6–8 showed small year-to-year fluctuation with a net projected gain of about one student in part of the projection window; grades 9–12 were projected to lose about 96 students. Vagenis highlighted that kindergarten cohorts have been smaller than the graduating 12th-grade cohorts for the last decade, which contributes to the long-term decline.

Board members and staff framed the findings in operational terms. One board member observed that, while the aggregate loss sounds large, “compared to your enrollment… it’s not a huge impact,” and district staff said budgeting and building-use planning typically absorb modest enrollment shifts across many schools. District staff also noted housing and market data in the report stop at 2023 and that the district is working with BOCES on updated housing figures for the 2023–24 school year.

The report will inform the district’s long-range planning for building use, class sizes and capital projects, and board members said they would use the full BOCES study when preparing the budget and facility plans.