Demographer presents enrollment forecast; infill development could add students

Flow Analytics demographer Charles Ryerson presented the Tigard‑Tualatin School District’s annual demographic forecast, describing near‑term stability in overall enrollment and localized growth tied to planned residential development.

Ryerson said district births fell sharply during the pandemic and have only begun to tick up; that, combined with housing patterns, explains much of the recent decline in kindergarten cohorts. He highlighted specific development sites the firm tracks — including River Terrace and Kingston Terrace — that the forecast assumes will add students toward the latter half of the 10‑year horizon.

Ryerson provided student‑generation rates by housing type from geocoded student records: roughly 0.33 students per new single‑family home; about 8 students per 100 market‑rate apartment units; approximately 28 students per 100 income‑restricted (affordable) multifamily units; and a higher effective rate of about 0.58 students per unit where family‑oriented, income‑restricted multifamily housing exists. He said those differences matter for school planning because affordable multifamily housing tends to produce more students per unit than market‑rate apartments.

On the district‑wide forecast, Ryerson described a “middle” scenario showing modest stability after a few years of small declines and noted the high‑school grades currently contain relatively large cohorts that will affect totals for several years. He urged the board to treat current infill development as a one‑time planning opportunity: use projected growth to prioritize investments now while acknowledging broader, longer‑term birth‑rate declines could resume later.

Board members thanked Flow Analytics for the annual report and said the findings will inform boundary and capacity work. The superintendent and board said the report’s data will be used in upcoming boundary conversations and capital planning.