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JFAC analyst: FY2025 revenue projection $5.99 billion; House tax-cut bills would shrink future receipts
Summary
Legislative analysts told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee the committee is working from a FY2025 revenue projection of $5.99 billion and flagged several pending tax bills that would reduce future receipts, including House Bill 40.
Keith Phibbe, Division Manager for Budget Policy Analysis at the Legislative Services Office, told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee that the Legislature is operating from an adopted FY2025 revenue projection of $5,990,000,000 and currently carries an unspent balance of about $463 million.
The projection and an updated “green sheet” that Phibbe distributed to members matter because they set the revenue baseline for budget decisions that JFAC will take during the session. Phibbe said the committee’s maintenance budget so far totals about $5.404 billion — a 2.5% increase from the prior year — and that the current JFAC-maintained total is roughly $250 million below the governor’s budget.
Phibbe highlighted several bills that could affect the committee’s work and the revenue target. “Most notably, House Bill 40. That would be the income tax cut bill. The projection on that one is a $253,000,000 reduction in fiscal year 2026,” he told the committee. He also noted House Bill 83 and House Bill 93 were on the House third reading calendar and that Senate Bill 1028 would create a new judicial judge in the First Judicial District. Phibbe said a judicial salary increase bill had been introduced in the House as well.
Phibbe reminded members that entries on the green sheet marked with an asterisk still require legislative action. He also briefed the committee on the status of the maintenance budget and agency-by-agency items: “When we’re looking at the sheet specifically, if there is not an asterisk off to the side of legislative action, that means that there is action remaining to be taken,” he said. He added that the Legislature has already taken maintenance action on parts of the statewide budget and that some agency maintenance items no longer show asterisks as a result.
No formal committee action or vote was recorded during the briefing. Phibbe ended by offering to answer questions and noting the green sheet will be updated and reviewed regularly as bills move across chambers.
The update framed the committee’s immediate workload: reconciling adopted revenue estimates with pending tax legislation and aligning maintenance and enhancement requests across agencies as JFAC prepares appropriation recommendations.
