State revenue outlook trimmed; lawmakers debate treating unclaimed property as ongoing money

Derek Johnson, with the Bureau of Finance and Management, told the Joint Appropriations Committee that revised state revenue estimates for the current year reflect slower taxable-sales growth and continuing pressure from high interest rates, sticky inflation and weak farm income.

The projection from BFM calls for fiscal 2025 taxable-sales collections to finish down about 0.6 percent from the prior year and — depending on whether the governor’s proposed change to the sales tax collection allowance passes — sales-tax growth in fiscal 2026 of about 3.6 percent (4.1 percent including a proposed policy change). “Our state gross product is projected to be average in 2025 and above average in 2026,” Johnson said while outlining the agency’s assumptions about employment, inflation and personal income.

The committee also heard an independent assessment from Jeff Melhoff, chief fiscal analyst for the Legislative Research Council, who described LRC’s forecast as “cautiously optimistic.” LRC’s revised forecast has sales-tax receipts down roughly 0.3 percent in…