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HHS presents inflation scenarios and FMAP assumptions as committee weighs inflationary choices
Summary
Department of Health and Human Services outlined 1.5/1.5, 2/2 and 3/3 inflation scenarios, their fiscal impact and how FMAP and program mixes affect the state's share of costs; committee members pressed for details on program-specific assumptions and cost-to-continue figures.
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Donna (Division director, DHHS) briefed the committee on inflationary cost scenarios included with the governor's executive recommendation and additional 2/2 and 3/3 alternatives. She said the presentation grouped costs by program and provided a "cost to continue" projection for the next biennium.
"The Governor's executive recommendation called for 43,600,000, of which 21,900,000 was general fund," Donna said, and walked members through how a 2-and-2 scenario would raise total costs and general-fund exposure. She explained that FMAP rates and each program's federal/general split affect the state's exposure and that some programs (for example, aging services and behavioral health clinics) are not a simple 50โ50 split.
Committee members sought clarification on assumptions: Representative Murphy asked whether federal matching (FMAP) automatically rises with state spending; Donna and staff answered that FMAP is open-ended for allowable costs and the state would receive the applicable federal match for eligible expenditures. Committee members also pressed for program-level detail and for the department to run alternative scenarios by program.
Budget manager Lyndon and Assistant CFO Eric explained Medicaid expansion and the actuarial mechanics that drive its costs. Eric said expansion rates are set actuarially and that the program is not fee-for-service; expansion changes reflect utilization rather than the ordinary inflators under discussion.
Chairman Nelson and members noted the developmental-disability (DD) community's budget share and asked staff for additional data, including FTE breakdowns and detailed rollup figures to inform amendments. The department agreed to provide program-specific follow-ups, enrollment/utilization metrics and projections for the 1915(i) and other HCBS authorities.
Ending note: staff asked members to submit specific inflator scenarios they want modeled, and the committee scheduled further work and document follow-up before full committee debate.
