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Snohomish School District projects modest enrollment rise, flags localized pressure at several elementary schools
Summary
District staff presented enrollment projections showing a K–12 average annual FTE of about 9,318 for next year, citing modest overall growth and concentrated increases tied to specific housing developments that may pressure some elementary schools.
Tom, a district staff member who presented the forecast, told the board the district is projecting 9,318 K–12 students next school year, an increase of roughly 50 students over the prior year and about 37 students above the district’s current budget projection.
The projection matters because district apportionment and staffing are based on average annual full-time-equivalent (FTE) counts drawn from the October 1 headcount and FTE. Tom told the board those figures show steady recovery since the pandemic and modest year‑to‑year growth rather than rapid expansion.
Much of the district’s increase is localized. Tom singled out Cathcart Elementary and the Cathcart Crossing development as the principal source of new students: Cathcart showed about a 27‑student increase and the projection included 21 additional students tied specifically to that single development. Dutch Hill Elementary reached 704 students — its highest enrollment — creating pressure on that site, while Totem Falls declined by about seven students. At the secondary level, Cascade Middle School and Valley View showed small changes; Glacier Peak High School’s enrollment was essentially flat, while Snohomish High School showed slight growth.
Glacier Peak also relies heavily on choice transfers: Tom said 428 students at Glacier Peak this year are choice transfers, representing more than a quarter of that school’s enrollment. The district opens choice transfer applications on Feb. 15. AIM (the alternative/choice program building referenced by staff) is forecast down by about 14 students from its current 170 capacity; staff said a projection of 156 may be conservative and that AIM could enroll more.
Looking ahead, Tom said the district is tracking roughly 2,600 homes that are under construction or permit application. He identified Eastview Village as the largest single project (about 1,300 homes) and mentioned other developments: roughly 150 remaining lots at Cathcart Crossing, about 249 homes across several Cascade View developments, and a recently reported county project on Avenue D projecting about 221 homes. He said these projects will likely add students but will come in over several years.
Board members asked several clarifying questions about cohort survival calculations, class‑by‑class variations at high schools, and running start enrollments; Tom said he would follow up with more detailed cohort numbers where requested.
District staff framed the overall projection as positive: steady, manageable growth rather than a surge that would require immediate large‑scale capacity changes. The board heard requests for follow‑up data on grade‑by‑grade cohort survival at the high schools and asked staff to return with any necessary clarifications.
Ending: The board did not take any formal action on enrollment projections at the meeting; staff will provide follow‑up figures and monitor the listed housing developments as they move through permitting and construction.
