Human Services committee hears forecast showing sharp growth in Medicaid waiver costs

The House Committee on Human Services Finance and Policy heard a nonpartisan budget briefing showing large projected increases in the Department of Human Services (DHS) general‑fund budget driven primarily by growth in Medicaid waiver enrollment and per‑recipient costs.

Joe Harney, a fiscal analyst with House Fiscal, told the committee the combined House HHS base budget for the 2026‑27 biennium is about $21.6 billion — roughly 32% of the state general fund — and that the Department of Human Services accounts for about $19.9 billion of that total. Harney said the November 2024 forecast produced a net $183 million reduction in the current biennium and a $523 million increase in the 2026‑27 biennium relative to the February forecast, with the increase largely driven by long‑term care (LTC) waiver growth and a smaller federal FMAP share beginning in October 2025.

“This forecasted growth in MA is really tied to the statutes that set forth the benefits and amount of enrollees,” Harney said. “If you want to adjust the growth in MA spend, you are faced with a few simple possibilities. You either…