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Consultants forecast modest district growth, warn of elementary crowding
Summary
RSP forecasting projects a small near-term enrollment uptick and larger growth over 10 years; consultants flagged Starsight Elementary as potentially over capacity and tied changes to local development and job growth.
Consultants from RSP presented an enrollment analysis and five- and 10-year projections to the De Soto Board of Education on Feb. 3, 2025, forecasting modest net growth concentrated at the elementary level.
Rob Schwartz and Lucy Crum of RSP told the board the district—s enrollment is expected to increase by about 22 students in the first five years and by roughly 200 students over the next 10 years, with most growth occurring at elementary grades. The consultants noted that a lower kindergarten class this year and longer-term declines in live births temper some growth but that net cohort gains and in-migration are currently offsetting those declines.
The presentation identified specific capacity pressures: RSP said Starsight Elementary is at risk of overutilization if development around the district proceeds as expected. The consultants emphasized development timing, infrastructure (sewer, water, roads), job growth—particularly activity tied to Panasonic—and the age of the existing housing stock as key drivers of when and where students will materialize.
RSP shared several model details and clarifications: their district-level single-family yield (the number of K–12 students produced per 100 single-family units) has declined from about 63 in the 2015–16 period to about 54 in 2024–25; multifamily yield has been roughly 26 in both periods. The consultants reported strong past projection accuracy (about 98.7% last year) and recommended annual enrollment evaluations to refine actions. They also noted approximately 2,700 "shovel-ready" housing units identified as possible building activity within the next five years across the planning area.
Board members asked whether pending city projects and housing applications had been factored into RSP—s forecast; RSP said projects known at the time of analysis were included and that timing changes are why the firm recommends annual updates. Superintendent Corey Gibson added that boundary changes could be considered but said the board is also examining available space within existing buildings and potential additions rather than immediate rezoning.
RSP advised the district to review building-level projections in detail and begin public communication early if any boundary or facility changes are contemplated.
