Demographer: Gardner Edgerton enrollment will grow through 2029–30 but live-birth declines complicate kindergarten forecasts

The board received a five-year enrollment analysis from demographer Rob Schwartz of RSP, who said the district’s student population is likely to grow through 2029–30 but noted important caveats tied to birth-rate declines and housing mix.

Schwartz said the district’s projections are tracking toward roughly 6,000 students in 2029–30, about 2,400 elementary, 1,800 middle and 1,900 high school students, but that live births in Johnson County have declined in recent years and that affects kindergarten yields five years later. He highlighted that the district has seen substantial building activity — roughly 950 single-family units and nearly 1,200 multifamily units since 2015–16 — and that yield rates (students per 100 housing units) have fallen for both single-family and multifamily product in the district.

The study included maps showing clusters of development (northwest pockets and south of I-35) and a table identifying more than 3,100 units currently in green (active) development, plus additional units projecting beyond five and 10 years. Schwartz said these development timelines and where they fall inside elementary boundaries will shape capacity decisions, including where a new elementary should be placed and how a new early-childhood center at Sunflower could change building assignments.

Board members discussed lab-school or choice-school ideas to attract families to underused buildings and asked staff to use RSP’s projections when finalizing boundary and facility plans tied to the bond. Schwartz said RSP’s year-one projections had 99.8% accuracy versus actual enrollment and encouraged trustees and the public to use the report to understand staffing, programming and long-term facilities planning.

No board action was required; district staff said the document has been shared with Gardner and Edgerton city officials to support municipal planning.