Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Enrollment Forecasting topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Blue Valley reports near‑term enrollment stability; kindergarten down slightly from recent highs
Summary
Blue Valley told the board its count-day headcount was 21,704 and its five-year projection shows a modest dip next year driven by a large graduating class, then gradual growth. Building permits and mortgage rates continue to shape outlooks.
Blue Valley USD 229’s official count-day headcount was 21,704 for the 2024–25 school year, the district’s enrollment analyst told the board on Jan. 13.
Eric Polam presented the annual enrollment and five‑year forecast the district uses to plan facilities and staffing. Polam said kindergarten enrollment this year was 1,392, slightly below recent high years that ran around 1,400–1,550. He said no returning cohort lost students year to year; most cohorts either held steady or grew. The district’s larger senior cohort (12th grade) and the smaller incoming kindergarten class together create a projected short-term decline the district expects to partly recover over the subsequent years.
Polam walked trustees through Blue Valley’s projection methodology, which relies heavily on single‑family building permits. He said the district recorded about 214 single‑family permits in the last year, up modestly from the prior year. Polam also cited mortgage‑rate trends and noted the national 30‑year fixed mortgage rate was about 6.93% on the morning of the presentation; he said lower rates historically spur housing activity and therefore enrollment growth.
Using a set of high/low/median scenarios at a granular neighborhood level, the district’s mid‑range projection foresees a modest dip next year and then gradual growth over the five‑year window, but it does not project a return to the district’s prior peak of roughly 22,000 students within five years under the mid‑range scenario. At the school level, most elementary schools are projected to remain within capacity guidelines through year five. Polam said Aubrey Bend Elementary and a handful of growth areas will remain watch items; Wolf Springs opening in 2026 is included in the facility plan to relieve middle‑school crowding.
Polam said the district updates projections every year and that the five‑year edge of the forecast commonly changes as new subdivisions and permits become known. He encouraged trustees and community members to review detailed maps and the district’s facility‑planning materials online and to contact his office for further questions.
The board received the report; no formal board action was required.
