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Winchester schools project higher state revenue for FY 2026 after enrollment rise
Summary
Staff told the Winchester School Board the division’s average daily membership rose above the number used to build this year’s budget, producing an estimated $1.9 million in additional state revenue; board members discussed conservative vs. aggressive enrollment assumptions and how one-time and recurring increases would be used.
Jason, a school division staff member, briefed the Winchester School Board on revenue assumptions for the FY 2026 budget and recommended using an average daily membership (ADM) of about 4,100 students to build next year’s plan.
Jason said the division budget for the current year (FY 2025) had been prepared on 3,975 students but actual enrollment has climbed to about 4,140. He told the board that the state’s funding calculation (the “calc tool”) averages fall and spring counts to determine the division’s share of Standards of Quality (SOQ) funding and other state categories.
Why it matters: the ADM projection is the primary driver of state revenue for the division. Using 4,100 rather than 3,975 increases projected state revenue by roughly $1.9 million; Jason noted that about $850,000 of that amount already has been spent this year on a midyear salary increase, and that recurring costs (salary, health insurance, VRS retirement) will absorb a large share of any new recurring revenue.
Board members asked whether the division should be conservative when setting the budget projection. Jason said the state issues monthly payments on a projection and does a “true up” after March; Winchester has typically budgeted conservatively by 25–40 students to avoid shortfalls. He summarized the trade-offs: underbudgeting reduces the division’s spending flexibility, while overbudgeting risks not having enough revenue to cover recurring obligations.
Jason outlined several one-time uses planned for the current-year increase (FY 2025): $430,000 already allocated to midyear pay adjustments (half of the full-year cost), bus purchases, early childhood playground equipment for a school move, truck purchases, and an ADA lift. Those one-time expenditures free up capital-account resources for ongoing capital-improvement projects.
He described the main revenue buckets: the Standards of Quality (SOQ) was the largest, incentive support (often for compensation) varied year to year, categorical programs were relatively small, and lottery funds supported programs such as K–3 class-size reduction. Jason emphasized that the slide deck and the simplified “calc” illustration were summaries of the more detailed tool supplied by the Virginia Department of Education.
Looking ahead, the division will present formal budget priorities in the next board meeting (including salary and health insurance assumptions), assemble a full budget on March 10, transmit the city funding request to Winchester city council by March 17 as required, and adopt the budget on March 24.
Board members raised questions about sensitivity: Jason said each 25-student change affects revenue by roughly $185,000. He also noted potential state-level changes that could affect local costs — for example, legislative proposals to restore state support for certain support personnel, which would reduce the local share of those costs if enacted.
The board did not take a formal vote on a budget figure at this meeting; the presentation was informational and framed the enrollment and revenue decisions they will consider in upcoming meetings.
Ending: The board scheduled follow-up budget work in the next two meetings; staff will return with a recommended salary and benefits package and with updated ADM projections before the March adoption date.
