Lake Washington School District forecast: enrollment to fall about 9.7% by 2034 as smaller birth cohorts move through grades

Lake Washington School District leaders on Jan. 27 heard a forecast from Flow Analytics that projects district enrollment will decline from 30,039 students in October 2024 to approximately 27,129 by the 2033–34 school year, a drop of about 2,900 students (9.7%). The presentation came at a district study session attended by board members, district staff and consultants from Flow Analytics.

Flow Analytics senior population geographer Alex Brosh said the drop stems chiefly from smaller birth cohorts that began appearing after 2016 and from a reduced ratio of children born to district residents who later enroll in kindergarten. “So what we see in this chart is … our forecast for the middle scenario was 18,892 students, so our forecast for kindergarten was 9 fewer than actual, which gives you an error of 0.5%,” Brosh said in describing forecast accuracy and methods.

The forecast’s core findings and context: Flow prepared three scenarios (low, middle and high). Under the middle scenario the district’s total enrollment falls to about 27,129 by 2034. Brosh said births to district residents dropped from an average of roughly 2,560 per year (2011–2016) to as few as 2,117 in 2022, and that the kindergarten-to-birth ratio (the share of children born who enroll in district kindergarten five years later) fell from about 0.92 pre-pandemic to roughly 0.82…