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University of Michigan RSQE presents U.S. and Michigan outlook; flags tariffs, targeted tax cuts as near‑term risks
Summary
Researchers from the University of MichiganResearch Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) told MichiganConsensus Revenue Estimating Conference attendees that the U.S. expansion remains intact but that 2026 policy changes (tariffs and tax cuts) could push headline inflation up temporarily even as core inflation drifts lower.
University of Michigan researchers delivered updated U.S. and Michigan economic forecasts at the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference, saying momentum remains but that policy changes and tariffs pose the biggest near‑term risks to inflation and growth.
RSQE economist Danil (RSQE U.S. forecasting specialist) said the U.S. economy entered the fourth quarter with solid momentum after 3.1% annualized real GDP growth in Q3 2024 and that partial data point toward a still‑healthy Q4. "The momentum in the economy was actually pretty strong," he said, while noting that core inflation measures have leveled off and are giving the Federal Reserve reason to move cautiously.
Danil told attendees the RSQE baseline assumes the new federal administration will enact…
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