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ISO New England: electrification will raise winter peak; managed EV charging can mitigate stress
Summary
The ISO told Vermont lawmakers it expects New England to shift from summer to winter peak as heating and transportation electrify, projecting increased annual energy use and larger winter peaks; managed electric‑vehicle charging was highlighted as a key mitigation tool.
ISO New England staff told the House Energy and Digital Infrastructure Committee on Jan. 23 that regional electrification of heating and transportation will materially change when and how much electricity is needed.
Sarah Adams said New England has been a summer‑peaking system for decades but the regionwide peak is projected to shift back to winter by the 2030s as heating and electric vehicle (EV) adoption grow. “We expect that we will switch back to winter peaking,” Adams said, noting parts of Vermont already see winter peaks.
Adams summarized the ISO’s forecast to 2033: annual energy use could rise by roughly 17 percent, summer peak by about 9 percent and winter peak by about 26 percent, driven mainly by electrified heating and less‑efficient cold‑weather EV charging. She said planners must consider those changing seasonal demands when sizing capacity and transmission.
Committee members asked how the distribution system and transmission will handle the added load. Adams highlighted utility programs that offer managed EV charging and presented modeled demand curves showing large reductions in peak load if charging is shifted away from evening peaks. In one scenario, unmanaged EV charging substantially worsened evening peaks; managed charging flattened and delayed that additional load.
Adams said the ISO works directly with utilities to obtain enrollment and utilization data for managed‑charging programs; the ISO uses those data in its energy‑and‑loads forecasts. She described managed charging as a near‑term, low‑cost tool that can reduce peak stresses while longer‑term resources and transmission are developed.
