Preliminary land‑capacity findings show unincorporated UGA shortfall; cities report mixed capacity

Spokane County planning staff presented preliminary Land Capacity Analysis (LCA) results, jurisdictional updates and a housing‑allocation (HAPT) update, and municipal representatives summarized initial findings for Millwood, Deer Park and the City of Spokane.

County planner Graham (presenting the LCA) told the steering committee the numbers shown were preliminary and not final and emphasized many assumptions used to convert vacant, partially used, platted and underutilized land into dwelling‑unit capacity. He said the unincorporated UGAs currently show a capacity shortfall relative to the county's population allocation: "the unincorporated UGAs ... do not have enough capacity for our population allocation, which is right around, 30,500. Right now, we're seeing, that we have capacity for closer to 24,000," the presenter said.

Jurisdiction summaries: - Kevin Freeman, Mayor of the City of Millwood, said Millwood's LCA (completed by Upward 7 Consulting) found adequate capacity within existing boundaries to meet its allocation of 49 people and the related housing need of roughly 106 additional housing units. Freeman noted challenges accommodating permanent supportive and temporary emergency housing because the city lacks hotels/motels and some of the infrastructure needed for temporary emergency housing.

- Justin Berlacher (JEV Engineers), representing Deer Park, said Deer Park's preliminary analysis indicates the city can meet its 20‑year population allocation using the same metrics; more property-level refinements are pending.

- City of Spokane staff summarized a larger, conservative LCA that includes vacant, partially used and underutilized land. City staff said underutilized parcels are numerous and that a full parcel‑by‑parcel redevelopment analysis is time‑intensive; staff noted that even if underutilized capacity were removed from the city's totals, Spokane still shows sufficient capacity under current assumptions.

Public comment and concerns: Several members of the public and developers raised concerns that the LCA's theoretical capacity figures do not reflect real market availability, infrastructure constraints or the economics of redevelopment. Jim Frank, a builder and neighborhood practitioner in West Central, said market realities limit redevelopment: "The idea that those houses would be torn down and replaced with apartments, is not going to happen economically," he said, noting steep lot-price increases in core neighborhoods and the limited number of observed demolitions converted to multifamily in recent years.

Underutilized land: County staff described the difference between partially used and underutilized land and said an initial review in the unincorporated county identified roughly 370 candidate underutilized parcels but that about 80% of those were in established single‑family subdivisions and were not considered likely to redevelop; staff said only about 65 parcels remained that could be considered underutilized and that, given the county parcel base, those parcels had a negligible effect on the county LCA totals.

HAPT/housing allocation update: Staff said Commerce advised using housing shares (housing allocation) as HAPT inputs rather than population share. Staff and PTAC adjusted methodology accordingly; the change altered allocations for some jurisdictions (for example, the City of Spokane's housing allocation increased while other cities saw decreases). Staff said the total county‑wide housing number does not change, but distribution across jurisdictions shifts and that a second round of allocations would be returned to the steering committee in March.

Why it matters: the LCA and HAPT results help determine whether jurisdictions must consider boundary expansions, zoning changes or other measures to accommodate their 20‑year growth allocations under the Growth Management Act. County staff warned the LCA is conservative and academic in nature and not a site‑by‑site guarantee of near‑term development.

Ending: Staff said final LCA reports and round‑2 allocations would be presented in the coming month and that a broader public engagement and environmental review process is planned as jurisdictions proceed to comprehensive‑plan updates.