Vermont Futures Project urges 2% annual growth, sets workforce and housing targets

Kevin Chiu, executive director of the Vermont Futures Project, presented the nonprofit’s recently released economic action plan to the General & Housing Committee on Feb. 7, asking lawmakers to consider both population growth and housing production as tools to address Vermont’s labor shortages and cost pressures.

Chiu told the committee the plan sets long-term targets "focused in these two frameworks, people and places," and recommends an expansion strategy to grow the working-age population to a target of "802,000 by 2035" and a places target to reach "350,000 non seasonal units by 2035," an increase of about 70,000 housing units. He said the plan balances expansion (attracting and retaining people) with efficiency strategies (boosting participation and better aligning education and training to employer needs).

Why it matters: Chiu framed Vermont’s current shortages as demographically driven. He said the state now has "fewer than 200,000 Vermonters between the ages of 25 to 49," while the population over 65 has nearly doubled, and cited a Vermont Department of Labor estimate of about "17,150 retirements per year." On the labor-market side he said the state faces a gap of roughly 13,500 workers annually and that a decade ago there were about two job seekers per opening but today "for every one job seeker, there's about two open jobs." Chiu argued that addressing both people and places together is necessary so increased population does not worsen scarcity without added housing capacity.

Supporting details and proposals: The presentation cited several quantitative benchmarks discussed in the plan: about 71,000 Vermonters ages 16–64 who are not participating in the labor market and roughly 5,300 twelfth-grade students statewide. Chiu said Vermont currently issues about 2,500 housing permits per year while a statewide assessment shows the state needs to permit "7 to 8,000 homes per year." He also noted Vermont’s housing stock is old — "about a quarter of the homes were built before 1940" — and that under 20% of the current stock was built in the past 20 years.

Chiu described "latent capacity" in towns that once had larger peak populations, saying a town-by-town look at historical peak population versus today showed that restoring towns to their historical peaks could yield "over 70,000 Vermonters" without new greenfield development. He recommended local-level follow-up to determine whether latent capacity is vacant units, large households with empty bedrooms, or units needing renovation.

Committee discussion: Committee members pressed Chiu on family migration and schools. One member asked whether "massive school closure" would help migration; Chiu said families are less likely to move to places without schools and noted that trends from 2020–2023 showed movement to some rural areas, especially among adults without children. On second-home purchases and conversions to retirement use, Chiu said he did not have an immediate conversion-rate figure but offered to follow up with Census Bureau data, emphasizing that the core problem is housing scarcity and that targeted new housing types — including smaller units attractive to young workers — can help free up larger homes for families.

Next steps and availability: Chiu said the Futures Project launched the plan the prior Tuesday and offered hard copies to committee members. He said the plan contains further data on immigration impacts, latent capacity, and recommended actions for both state and local policymakers.

Ending: The committee thanked Chiu and signaled follow-up questions and requests for additional data, including conversion rates of second homes and the plan’s underlying calculations. The presentation closes the Futures Project’s launch-phase outreach and the organization offered to provide additional data to committee members.