Corvallis schools face multi‑year revenue shortfalls as enrollment falls nearly 4%

Corvallis School District officials told the school board that the district is projecting a steady decline in enrollment and a series of budget deficits that will require program reductions if funding trends continue.

Lauren, district staff member and budget presenter, said the district is projecting a decrease of 237 students — about 4.2% — for the 2025–26 school year, and warned that continuing current service levels would create multi‑year deficits. “If all stayed the same, next year, we would be operating at a deficit of about $7,600,000,” Lauren said. She added that corrective actions of nearly $3 million would be required in 2025–26 to meet district fund‑balance policy, and longer‑range modeling showed much larger reductions would be needed by 2027–28 if enrollment and revenue trends continue.

The district’s largest revenue source, the state school fund, is allocated biannually by the Oregon Legislature and is driven primarily by enrollment. Lauren said the district is using the governor’s proposed $11,360,000,000 state education budget as its planning baseline but emphasized that targeted increases proposed for special education may not translate into general fund increases for the district because they could be carved out as separate, weighted funding.

Board members and staff described other cost pressures. District staff cited rising employer pension contributions to the Oregon Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) as a major driver: “In this current biennium, we're spending about 34¢ on every dollar to PERS… in the next biennium, we will be spending closer to 42 or 43¢ on the dollar,” Lauren said. She added the district is also facing higher utility, food and transportation costs and that transportation reimbursement covers roughly 70% of transportation spending.

Officials flagged uncertainty about federal grants as an additional risk. Lauren said the district registers about $10 million per year in major federal grants and special revenues — including Title I, IDEA (special education), child nutrition and after‑school (21st Century) funds — and that if those revenues were reduced the district would need to shift general fund dollars to preserve programs. She said the district is submitting claims promptly when windows open to secure available reimbursements.

Superintendent Ryan Noss placed the budget forecast in a broader planning context and described steps the district is taking: convening a long‑range facilities plan, commissioning a demographic study, conducting targeted staff engagement and offering community meetings to explain the fiscal picture. Noss said two upcoming community events will include a March 10 meeting (6–8 p.m.) focused on the Osborne Aquatic Center and a February 20 meeting (5:30–7 p.m.) on local budget impacts and advocacy; a separate community forum on educational funding and advocacy was scheduled for Feb. 27.

Board members pressed staff on enrollment drivers. Sammy, a board member, noted the district’s projected drop is steeper than statewide forecasts and asked whether housing affordability and child‑care availability might be contributing factors; Lauren agreed they are likely contributors but said more specialized demographic research will be required to determine causes.

The presentation included long‑range scenarios showing that continuing current service levels could exhaust required reserves within several biennia. Lauren said the district intends to bring targeted corrective proposals to the board rather than make abrupt, undifferentiated cuts. “We will make sure kids are fed,” a board member said when concerns surfaced about child nutrition funding, adding that decisions about funding shifts have tradeoffs across programs.

The board asked for continued updates. Lauren said the budget timeline remains on track for required June deadlines and that more detailed proposals and opportunities for community engagement will follow in the months ahead.