Regents chief warns of "enrollment cliff," urges literacy and workforce actions

Blake Flanders, president and CEO of the Kansas Board of Regents, told the Kansas Senate Education Committee in a presentation that the state faces an "enrollment cliff" driven by falling birth rates and a declining college‑going rate, and he urged sustained attention to literacy, targeted workforce pipelines and flexible institutional arrangements.

The Board of Regents chief said statewide enrollment has been mixed: some universities are flat, community colleges have seen declines while technical colleges show strong growth, and several technical schools have affiliated with universities. "We have a looming enrollment cliff," Flanders said, adding that demographic shifts will produce fewer K–12 graduates and more first‑generation students.

Why it matters: declining enrollment and lower college readiness could shrink the pool of workers prepared for baccalaureate and postsecondary credentials that employers increasingly demand, Flanders said. He also flagged structured literacy as a top concern after telling senators the House removed a recurring $10,000,000 appropriation tied to literacy work the Board had expected to support.

Enrollment trends and institutions

Flanders said systemwide degrees and certificates are roughly flat over five years, with some year‑to‑year increases: Washburn University reported year‑over‑year enrollment growth of more than 8 percent and the University of Kansas reached a record fall headcount reported as more than 23,000 full‑time‑equivalent (FTE) students. Community colleges were up about 4.5 percent year over year and technical colleges about 7.5 percent, he said. But he cautioned these gains mask variation: some community colleges have seen sharper declines while technical colleges are growing, in part after affiliating with universities.

Flanders described recent affiliations—Wichita Area Technical College becoming WSU Tech, Kaw Area Technical School affiliating with Washburn University (now Washburn Tech), and two technical colleges affiliating with Fort Hays State—as generally beneficial for those technical colleges, citing WSU Tech as "a juggernaut" since its affiliation.

Demographics, readiness and literacy

The presentation cited a long‑term fall in the college‑going rate and in measures of college readiness. Flanders said the share of students meeting four ACT readiness indicators fell from roughly 31 percent to about 18 percent; he noted more students now take the ACT but that fewer meet all four indicators (English, math, reading and science). "If you're in the third grade and you don't read well, we might have an individual or two...but overall, you never catch up," Flanders said, arguing structured literacy and more local coaching for teachers are needed.

Flanders said the Board had counted on structured‑literacy funding and expressed concern that the House removed the $10 million designated for that work, calling literacy a major economic and individual threat for Kansas.

Workforce pipeline and program initiatives

Citing workforce research for Kansas, Flanders said a large share of new jobs in the next decade will require postsecondary credentials, and he described employer demand that often favors baccalaureate credentials. He summarized Board‑backed initiatives the committee has funded or supported: an engineering initiative across the three research universities, a Kansas nursing initiative that the Board said produced about 470 more graduates annually (exceeding an earlier target), and expanded dual‑credit career and technical education (from roughly 3,500 to more than 16,000 high school students served).

Flanders noted on‑time graduation rates and retention have improved systemwide after the Board encouraged student success playbooks and evidence‑based practices: on‑time graduation rose by 9.7 percentage points and starting wages for graduates are up about 16 percent over three years.

Affordability, debt and financial aid

The Board reported increases in state need‑based aid and limited tuition growth. Median student debt figures Flanders cited included roughly $20,500 median debt for state university graduates, about $24,000 for graduates of independent private colleges, $8,500 for community college graduates and $9,500 for technical college graduates. He said about 29 percent of graduates leave with no debt and that student loan burden for Pell recipients has decreased about 14 percent.

Salaries and staffing

Flanders told senators that Board‑governed university employees received smaller salary increases than other state employees in recent years: while the state broadly approved 5 percent raises for state employees in prior cycles, Board institutions and Regents staff received 2.5 percent in those years, leaving an approximate cumulative shortfall the Board asked the legislature to correct. Committee members pressed for clarity about which salaries are set locally (K–12 districts) versus which are affected by state‑level decisions.

Questions from senators

Several senators asked for clarifications and data. Senator Kasich asked whether teachers understand that K–12 salaries are set by local districts rather than the legislature; Flanders replied that university faculty know state decisions affect their pay but that K–12 salary decisions generally rest with local districts and the commissioner for K–12. Senator Petty cautioned that comparative salary charts can obscure local nuance and seniority differences. Senator Arkebrite asked whether the Board can track individual student progress from early childhood through postsecondary outcomes; Flanders said the Board has aggregate end‑of‑pipeline data but does not have direct access to K–12 individual student records and would need to coordinate with the K–12 commissioner to trace students longitudinally.

Committee business and next steps

Flanders concluded by noting the Board collects and publishes system data and offered to provide reports. The committee chair announced upcoming hearings on several bills (SB 87, SB 49, SB 48 and SB 78) and adjourned.

Ending

The presentation laid out the Board's view that Kansas needs coordinated literacy interventions, targeted workforce pipelines and flexible institutional arrangements to respond to demographic change; the Board emphasized data collection and continued legislative engagement as next steps.