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CEC explains gas demand forecasting, AEE/AFS scenarios and gaps with CARB scoping plan
Summary
California Energy Commission staff described the IEPR gas forecast, long‑term demand scenarios and the AEE/AFS modeling framework, and explained why CEC scenarios show smaller near‑term natural gas declines than CARB’s scoping plan.
California Energy Commission staff outlined the CEC’s gas forecasting suite and the methods used to model additional achievable energy efficiency (AEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AFS) at a California Public Utilities Commission workshop, and explained why CEC scenarios show smaller early reductions in natural gas demand than the CARB 2022 Scoping Plan scenario.
CEC staff said the commission produces three principal gas products: the Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) gas demand forecast (updated every two years and expressed in annual therms), longer‑term demand scenarios used to inform SB 100 and other planning, and a peak‑day gas forecast used for seasonal reliability assessments. The IEPR forecast is developed in coordination with the electricity forecast because fuel switching drives down gas and raises electric load.
Nicholas Janusch and Heidi Javanbakht described the IEPR’s…
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