Vermont Futures Project urges ‘abundance’ approach: plan sets housing, workforce targets and 7,200‑unit annual goal

Kevin Chew, executive director of the Vermont Futures Project, presented an economic action plan to the Economic Development, Housing & General Affairs Committee on Feb. 5, describing demographic change, workforce shortfalls and a statewide housing gap that the plan says must be addressed together.

Chew said the plan organizes strategies around two pillars — “people” and “places” — and set long‑term targets informed by an analysis of retirements, labor force flows and housing supply. For the people framework Chew cited a working‑age population target of “802,000 by 2035” tied to a workforce gap analysis; for housing he highlighted a short‑term need of roughly 36,000 new primary homes over five years — about 7,200 homes per year — to meet replacement and demand pressures.

Why it matters: The presentation connects demographic trends (fewer 25‑to‑49‑year‑olds, more 65+ residents, and the nation’s lowest fertility rate) with a changed labor market: a decade ago Vermont had about two job seekers per job opening; today the ratio is about two openings per job seeker. Chew said that dynamic means Vermont must pursue both efficiency measures (raise labor‑force participation, align training to demand) and expansion (grow working‑age population through retention and in‑migration).

Key findings and recommendations - Demographics and workforce: Chew said Vermont lost roughly 30,000 residents aged 25–49 in recent years while the 65+ cohort nearly doubled. He cited Vermont Department of Labor projections that estimate about 17,150 retirements per year through the early 2030s, which undergirds the plan’s long‑term population and workforce targets.

- Housing need: The plan incorporates the statewide housing needs assessment and estimates about 24,000–36,000 primary homes needed over five years; Chew emphasized the higher figure to account for post‑pandemic demand. He calculated that reaching the five‑year 36,000 figure requires permitting and building roughly 7,200 units annually; by comparison, current permitting averages about 2,500 units per year.

- Latent capacity and churn: The plan’s “latent capacity” analysis shows many towns have fewer residents than their historic peaks; restoring some of that capacity could add roughly 71,000 residents statewide. Chew said the problem is often mismatched housing types and low housing mobility — older residents in larger homes, limited options to downsize, and few market signals to return units to the active market.

- Places framework: Chew recommended pairing housing expansion with infrastructure and smart‑growth principles — water, wastewater, energy, broadband, and transportation — and stressed that clustered growth can lower vehicle miles traveled and greenhouse‑gas emissions when done near jobs and services.

- Strategy mix: The plan groups tactics as expansion (attracting and retaining working‑age people, supporting remote workers, targeted in‑migration) and efficiency (aligning education and training to employer demand, increasing labor‑force participation among under‑engaged cohorts). Chew recommended a regional approach that lets local communities set bite‑sized targets compatible with statewide goals.

Committee discussion and follow‑up Committee members pressed Chew on regional variation — for example, Rutland County’s local conditions and 2,200 units currently offline — and on how to sequence transportation, economic development and housing actions. Chew said the plan is a starting point: the Futures Project will follow up with regional analysis and public engagement, sharing occupation‑level projections and county‑level housing breakdowns upon request.

No formal action was taken. Chew urged legislators to treat the plan as an agenda for coordinated policy — combining workforce development, housing investment and targeted infrastructure — rather than separate policy silos.