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Department of Justice provides conservative Tobacco Master Settlement estimates — warns uncertainty remains
Summary
The Department of Justice told the Ways and Means committee it estimates New Hampshire’s MSA receipts will fall in coming years — roughly $35.5 million in 2025, $32.5 million in 2026 and $30.0 million in 2027 — but stressed those numbers are uncertain due to volume declines, NPM adjustments and potential manufacturer withholdings.
The New Hampshire Department of Justice briefed the House Ways and Means committee on the state’s expected Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) receipts and the factors that make payment estimates uncertain.
Assistant Attorney General Warren Cormack, who oversees the MSA work for the state, explained that the annual national MSA payment begins with a base amount that is adjusted for inflation (3% assumed base), for changes in cigarette sales volume…
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