Planning staff distributed the Planning Commission's 2015 annual report and outlined a work program for 2016 that includes a countywide development capacity analysis and a complete revision of the Comprehensive Water and Sewer Plan (CWSP).

Jeff Jackman, planning staff, told commissioners the capacity analysis contractor provided an initial “first cut” that estimates county residential capacity at roughly 25,000 dwelling units under the county’s interpretation of the Sustainable Growth Act (the septic limitation). Jackman said the contractor’s alternate calculation, without the septic-law limitations, showed a slightly larger potential yield (about 27,000 units).

Jackman explained key modeling assumptions and the difference between the two columns in the contractor's table: one assumes areas not planned for sewer are limited by septic law and the other does not. He clarified the metric used in the contractor’s tables is dwelling units, not households, and said, “So it's counting new dwelling units, whether they're bachelor 1 room things or … 4 bedrooms?” — an exchange that staff confirmed counts dwelling units of any size.

Staff said the model was initiated as an MVP project that began with a pilot in 2004–05 and has been updated; the county asked the contractor to calibrate the model to include the new Lexington Park zoning intensities once the rezoning language is adopted. The contractor included Leonardtown as a benchmarking municipality. Staff said the analysis is an initial run and that staff will return with refinements and possibly a work session to go through the assumptions and exhibits in more detail.

The annual report section of the meeting also flagged several ongoing tasks: revising the CWSP (a comprehensive revision not undertaken since 1993), preparing a small-area plan for the 5th district (Charlotte Hall), and incorporating certain road- and capital-project recommendations into the planning work program. Staff reminded commissioners of statutory submittal requirements for the annual report and said the report will go to the Board of County Commissioners and then to the Maryland Department of Planning.

Why it matters: The capacity analysis informs growth-management decisions, priority funding-area delineations and future infrastructure and sewer planning. Staff asked commissioners to identify additional analyses they want included in the capacity model and said they will provide updated exhibits that reflect adopted zoning changes when available.