Aurora staff warns of $11.5 million 2026 general-fund shortfall; council weighs options

City finance staff on Saturday told the Aurora City Council that while 2024 closed with a small operating surplus, capital revenues fell sharply late in the year and the city still faces an estimated $11.5 million shortfall in 2026.

Greg (staff member, finance) briefed the council and said, “The numbers don't settle down until around March,” warning that forecasts presented in mid-January are preliminary and subject to change. He reported a roughly $2.6 million net positive on the operating side for 2024 but said capital revenues were about $5 million below expectations, largely because building-material-use and impact fees dropped in the last quarter.

Why it matters: Aurora's operating budget depends heavily on sales and use taxes. Council members pressed staff about where any additional cuts or new revenue might come from, and staff outlined options that would affect services and personnel. Greg summarized the arithmetic plainly: personnel (personal services) is about 64% of general-fund spending, and without a mix of revenue increases and programmatic changes, reductions are likely to affect service levels.

Key revenue and expenditure details - Sales tax: ended 2024 at about 3.7% growth versus a projection of 4.5%, producing a roughly $2.1 million shortfall versus forecasts. Auto use tax finished about $1.9 million (6.4%) below projection. Audit recoveries and other miscellaneous revenue added roughly $3.3–3.4 million and another $3.2 million, respectively, producing the modest operating surplus. - Capital revenues:…