Wenatchee SD projects continued multi‑year enrollment decline; district to refine numbers before June budget

Sean Fitzgerald, the district’s executive director of business and finance, told the Wenatchee School District Board of Directors at a board workshop that preliminary enrollment projections show continued decline and that the district will refine those projections before the June budget.

Fitzgerald said the district’s year‑end projection for 2024–25 and the four‑year forecast are “preliminary and will be refined throughout the spring before final numbers are presented in the budget in June.” He emphasized that the district uses annual average full‑time equivalent (AA FTE) for funding and that actual enrollment beginning in January drives state apportionment funding.

The projections flagged three primary drivers of the decline: a sharp drop in local birth rates starting in 2019–20, student transfers to nearby charter and private schools (notably Pinnacles Prep), and enrollment shifts tied to Running Start and other postsecondary options. Fitzgerald said the district’s analysis shows a District/County birth‑rate drop of roughly 70 births (district) and 88 births (Chelan County) between 2019 and 2020 and that those cohorts feed incoming kindergarten classes five years later. “So our expectation is we’re gonna see a decrease in the kindergarten classes as well,” Fitzgerald said.

Fitzgerald described methodological differences between the district’s projections and the contracted demographer, MGT Consulting (formerly Davis Demographics): the district models FTE because funding follows FTE, while MGT will use headcount and residency location for a more holistic 10‑year forecast. He said MGT will present an updated demographic study to the board on March 25.

On the district’s early numeric outlook, Fitzgerald presented a near‑term estimate of an overall decline of about 124 FTE from 2024–25 to 2025–26 and a four‑year series of projected declines of roughly 124, 180, 163 and 173 FTE if current trends continue. He also highlighted grade‑to‑grade patterns: a recurring rebound from kindergarten to first grade, a dip in elementary‑to‑middle school enrollment linked to charter/private-school options, a recovery from middle to high school as some students return, and a steady decline from 10th to 11th grade tied to Running Start.

Board members asked how the district will account for Running Start and “college in the high school” growth. Fitzgerald said registration documentation from high school programs will inform Running Start adjustments; he and staff plan to update projections as registration completes in late March or April. Board member Martin pressed the fiscal implication: “If in the latter months of this year, we lose a certain number of school students, we will lose money automatically right now, correct?” Fitzgerald confirmed that enrollment declines reduce apportionment funding.

Several questions also addressed possible program expansions. The district noted it expanded transitional kindergarten (TK) this year from 42 to 60 FTE but that further TK expansion depends on the state budget and legislative appropriations. Staff also described a proposal to relocate Valley Academy to Columbia Elementary and expand career/technical options into 9th and 10th grades; that proposal could add about 20 FTE if implemented.

Fitzgerald closed by reiterating these are early estimates: the district will track registration data closely, incorporate updated Running Start and TK information, and present refined figures in the June budget. MGT Consulting’s demographer is scheduled to present an updated 10‑year demographic forecast to the school board at its March 25 meeting.