Vermont presentation: local food sales equal about 10% of $4.8B food market as farmland and farm acres decline

A representative of the Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund, speaking through the Farm to Plate program, told lawmakers on Oct. 12 that Vermont residents spend roughly $4.8 billion a year on food and that local food accounts for about 10.1% of that total.

Why it matters: the presentation drew a line from where Vermonters buy food to what policies and investments could expand market opportunities for local producers while also protecting farmland and improving water quality.

The presenter said grocery stores and restaurants account for nearly 70% of where food dollars are spent in the state, and that retail grocery remains the single largest channel for local-food purchases. “That’s why we’ve focused attention in the retail grocery environment,” the representative said, noting the program’s work with independent grocers and food co‑ops to increase their local purchasing. The presenter added that direct sales — sales directly from farms to consumers, institutions, retailers or food hubs — have grown substantially and that USDA accounting changes have increased the measured value of direct sales.

Key figures and trends reported - Total food spending in Vermont: about $4.8 billion (approximate). - Local food share: 10.1% of total food spending (about one in every $10). - Direct sales: rose from about $22 million in 2007 to nearly $43 million in 2022; direct sales into retail, institutions and food hubs exceed $100 million; combined direct channels were reported at about $143 million in 2022. The presenter said direct-to-retail and direct-to-institution channels grew about 86% from 2017 to 2022. - Farmers markets and direct-to-consumer outlets make up a modest share (the presenter described roughly 3% labeled as direct sales on the chart shown).

Farmland and land‑use: decline and projection The presentation said Vermont has lost farmland acreage over time — nearly an 11% decline since 1997 — and cited a projection that, under a “business-as-usual” trend, the state could lose about 41,200 acres more by 2040. The presenter said that projected losses would be concentrated in Addison, Franklin and Rutland counties and described multiple mechanisms for the loss: conversion to development, land leaving production and fields reverting to woodland or wetlands, and farm succession challenges.

The presenter and several legislators debated whether current local housing pressure would produce the projected conversion; one lawmaker said they do not see a comparable surge in development in some counties and suggested other forces (farm viability, succession, wetlands) also explain acreage loss.

Production mix and new market opportunities The presentation emphasized that most Vermont cropland and harvested acreage is devoted to animal feed and livestock production: the presenter said about 89% of Vermont farmland is associated with raising and feeding livestock and that only a small share of cropland is in vegetable production (on the order of 1%). Speakers discussed opportunities for grains and beans, but the presenter said scaling up requires processing capacity (a “grain center”), buyers that meet quality specifications, and entrepreneurs willing to invest in storage and milling infrastructure.

Water quality, emissions and co‑benefits The presenter outlined conservation gains since 2016: nearly 500,000 acres of conservation practices implemented and an estimated 207,000 kilograms of phosphorus reductions attributed to those practices (figures the presenter described as program estimates). The presentation compared investment efficiency, saying that, on average, about $104 invested in agricultural conservation reduces one kilogram of phosphorus, whereas investing in municipal stormwater was presented as a higher cost per kilogram reduced.

On greenhouse gases, the presenter said agriculture accounts for about 16% of Vermont’s emissions profile and that agricultural conservation practices also sequester carbon; agency estimates cited since fiscal 2021 suggested those practices could sequester the carbon equivalent of taking nearly 7,000 cars off the road under a “maximum” scenario. The presenter also noted UVM research showing a 0.1 percentage‑point annual increase in soil organic matter on corn and hay fields would help meet emissions‑reduction targets under the Global Warming Solutions Act.

Food access and insecurity The presenter reported a USDA‑measured food insecurity rate of about 9.2% for Vermont households and said the rate is influenced by income, transportation, time to prepare food and availability. The presenter noted that food insecurity declined during the COVID period in part because federal and state relief raised program benefits per participant; specifics of benefit amounts were discussed in the meeting and described as based on federal assistance and state actions but not fully detailed in the presentation materials.

Coordination and goals The Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund representative described Farm to Plate as a convening network of private, nonprofit, academic and government partners formed in 2009 to coordinate food‑system work. The group has set a goal to increase the share of Vermonters’ food dollars spent on local food to 25% by 2030, the presenter said.

Discussion highlights Legislators and other participants asked about: how local products can compete on price with large national chains; strategies to get more local products into grocery distribution; the role of independent grocers and food hubs in matchmaking; and whether Vermont should pursue a regional New England strategy to raise the region’s self‑sufficiency.

What the presentation did not resolve No formal actions or votes were recorded in the transcript. The presentation included projections and program targets; speakers noted those projections are contingent on policy choices, market responses and investment in processing and distribution infrastructure. Several numeric items (for example, program cost‑effectiveness comparisons and historical benefit amounts cited for SNAP) were presented by the speaker as program estimates or based on federal sources and were not accompanied by line‑by‑line citations in the meeting record.

Ending note Speakers said the state has multiple levers — market development, conservation investments, and coordination among retailers, processors and farms — that could increase local food sales and protect farmland while delivering water‑quality and climate co‑benefits.