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Vermont dairy sector showing fewer farms but steady milk volumes and rising prices, agency official says
Summary
Laura Ginsburg of the Vermont Agency of Agriculture said the state has lost dairy farms in recent years but total milk production has stayed relatively stable, processors have increased, and milk prices have risen above the level many farms need to cover costs.
Laura Ginsburg, dairy strategy and innovation manager at the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food and Markets, told the Agriculture, Food Resiliency & Forestry committee that Vermont has seen a decline in the number of dairy farms but that total milk volume and processor numbers have remained relatively steady.
Ginsburg said data cleanups removed farms that had already ceased shipping milk and that the apparent November drop overstated actual losses. “Actually, I would say it pretty closely mirrors what happens across the nation, and actually in many cases in other countries across the world where we are seeing a decline in the total number of farms,” she said. She added that the number of processors continues to grow, calling that “unusual and something pretty special to the State of Vermont.”
Why it matters: Dairy remains the largest agricultural sector in Vermont by sales. Ginsburg said roughly two-thirds of the state’s agricultural receipts come from cow milk, and dairy-processed products account for a large share of Vermont’s manufactured food output.
Most important facts: Ginsburg walked committee members through multi-year trends showing fewer farms but rising average herd sizes, particularly among remaining operations. She said the number of cows per farm has slowly increased and observed a shift away from small mid-tier operations that neither benefit from very small‑farm exemptions nor from large‑scale cost advantages. On production volume, Ginsburg said the state’s milk output has been “relatively stable,” with organic milk making up a small share of total pounds despite representing a larger share of farms.
On milk pricing, Ginsburg noted recent federal changes to the milk marketing order system that affect how class prices are calculated. She told the committee that prices now reflect the “higher of” calculation in some areas, which should raise processor payments for this region and therefore increase revenues for producers. Chairman Sandoval described how the change could increase the producer pay differential (PPD), saying it could “be higher, reading in the milkweed by a dollar 68 perhaps” under stable conditions. Ginsburg cautioned that milk prices must be near $20 per 100 pounds for many Vermont producers to cover costs; she said recent forecasts put the 100‑pound price around $22 for the coming year.
Licensing and processors: In response to Representative John O’Brien’s question about small processors, Ginsburg said any operation that processes product off‑farm for sale must be licensed with the state regulatory division; she said that licensing enables inspection and sale but does not include raw‑milk retail sales, which are not captured in these datasets.
Other points of local interest: Ginsburg said Vermont has only a handful of goat and sheep dairy farms and that local processors currently rely on imports from nearby states and Canada to meet goat and sheep milk demand. She also noted supply‑chain constraints such as driver shortages and seasonal road conditions that complicate milk hauling.
Data and transparency: Ginsburg told the committee the agency posts slides and underlying datasets on its website and offered to share additional data showing how milk is processed and where final products are sold.
The presentation concluded with members pressing for more granular data on processing destinations and consumer flows; Ginsburg said she would provide the available datasets.
