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DNR study links chronic wasting disease prevalence to reduced deer survival and declining population growth at high prevalence
Summary
A multi-year DNR study using GPS-collared deer and live/necropsy testing found that chronic wasting disease substantially lowers adult survival and that population growth becomes negative near about 29% CWD prevalence in adult females.
The Department of Natural Resources presented results of a multi-year study on Jan. 22 that quantified how chronic wasting disease (CWD) affects white-tailed deer survival and population growth.
Dr. Dan Storm (presented as Dan Storm in the transcript), the DNR's deer research scientist, summarized field work that began in 2017 in southwest Wisconsin (primarily northern Iowa County). The project collared more than 760 deer with GPS units and sampled more than 300 newborn fawns; rectal biopsies and postmortem tests provided CWD status for live-captured and recovered animals.
Storm said uninfected adult female deer showed annual survival rates above 80%, while infected adult female survival was about half that level. Using observed survival, recruitment and infection prevalence in population models, the study found population growth rates decline with rising prevalence; model projections indicate population growth crosses the stability threshold at roughly 29% CWD prevalence in the adult deer population. Storm concluded that CWD can cause substantial population declines where prevalence becomes high, and that local conditions (recruitment, harvest, habitat) will influence how those declines manifest.
Board members asked how findings translate to other regions, what role hunter harvest plays, and whether behavioral signals from GPS collars can signal disease onset. Storm and DNR wildlife-health staff said additional analyses are underway: ongoing collar monitoring can reveal movement and behavior shifts, and other assays and detection methods are being investigated for live testing. Wildlife health staff also pointed to the department’s interactive public mapping and monitoring for CWD surveillance.
The presentation reinforced department messaging that CWD's impacts on populations are likely to grow as prevalence increases in new areas, and that long-term monitoring and multifaceted interventions are needed to manage disease spread and consequences.
