State snowpack below normal; southern Utah faces historically low readings, NRCS report says

Jordan Clayton of the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported to the Utah Board of Water Resources on Jan. 30 that statewide snow-water-equivalent (SWE) measured about 6.7 inches — roughly 78% of normal for this date — and that soil moisture and precipitation deficits are most acute in southern and southwestern Utah.

Clayton said the statewide SWE places current conditions near the 23rd percentile of historical observations and that, while there is still time this season for improvement, projections show a wide range of possible outcomes. He described a probabilistic mid-range projection that would bring statewide SWE to roughly 94% of normal by late March, but warned the basin-by-basin picture is uneven and that southwestern basins show some of the lowest values on record.

Clayton highlighted several indicators for the board: accumulated precipitation at SNOTEL sites is about 82% of normal statewide, soil moisture readings are near the 10th percentile in some monitoring layers, and reservoir storage statewide was about 75% of capacity at the beginning of the month (the speaker noted the agency would publish updated figures with its February water-supply outlook). Forecasts issued Jan. 1 are advisory and may still decline; Clayton said the January observations make a downward revision likely.

Specific region notes: several SNOTEL sites in southwestern Utah were at record-dry levels or had little to no snow; mid-elevation sites such as the Midway Valley location were well below normal. The presenter noted cooler-than-normal air temperatures in January have helped retain existing snow, but the combination of low precipitation, low soil moisture and faster reservoir depletion in the southwest raise concerns for runoff efficiency and water supply there.

Clayton also briefed the board on the Great Salt Lake basin: current snowpack and soil moisture in the basin are below normal (the presenter cited about 83% of normal for the basin’s snowpack), and inflow forecasts are wide-ranging; one advisory inflow projection suggested a possible above-normal inflow to the lake but with high uncertainty. Short-range outlooks (eight- to 14-day) called for warmer-than-normal temperatures over much of the state and some precipitation increases in northern Utah for Feb. 5–11, but Clayton said longer-range forecasts have limited confidence.

Ending: Clayton told the board he was available for questions; staff and members noted the southern Utah conditions had drawn media attention and emphasized the importance of continuing to monitor forecasts and reservoir conditions as the season progresses.