Legislative economists revise adult and youth prison forecasts: adult populations stabilize; youth detention shows recent uptick

Legislative Council economist Elizabeth Ramey presented updated prison and youth-corrections forecasts to the Joint Judiciary Committee on Jan. 29, reporting that adult prison and parole populations appear to be stabilizing at lower levels than before the pandemic while youth detention and commitment populations have seen recent upward pressure.

Ramey said the forecasts—prepared each year with Legislative Council staff—incorporate admission and release trends, sentencing changes, and operational constraints in corrections and juvenile services. The updated December 2024 forecast revised downward some expectations for the adult prison population because growth during the current fiscal year has been slower than expected; it revised upward the youth commitment forecast because of recent increases in detention and commitment admissions.

Key takeaways

- Adult prisons and parole: After pandemic-era volatility, the prison population has slowed its rate of growth and is converging toward a lower, more stable level than pre‑2020. Legislative changes such as felony‑to‑misdemeanor reclassifications for some drug offenses reduced admissions and are expected to keep the adult population below earlier forecasts. Ramey said the prison population was below last year’s forecast by about 290 inmates (1.7%) as of December 2024.

- Admissions and releases: New court commitments remain the principal driver of prison admissions; they have trended downward and the forecast assumes admissions will increase only slowly. Releases (discretionary and mandatory parole releases) have increased recently but remain below pre-pandemic levels. The parole population fell sharply after the pandemic and has stabilized at a reduced level.

- Youth corrections: Long-term declines in juvenile commitments and detention reversed recently. Ramey said detention average daily population (ADP) rose in recent fiscal years and can be volatile; detention capacity is capped by statute at 215 beds (plus 22 emergency beds). The December forecast projects the detention ADP will exceed the statutory bed cap on average in coming months unless trends change, and the commitment ADP rose in FY2024—the first increase since 2004–05.

Why it matters: The forecasts inform budget and operating decisions for corrections and juvenile services. Ramey told the committee that factors affecting the forecasts include court activity, sentencing changes, availability of reentry programs and treatment, and capacity constraints. Several committee members asked about Proposition 128 and other changes that could affect long‑term population dynamics; Ramey said proposed or recent changes that increase sentence lengths (for new offenses) will affect the population but not within the current forecast period.

Ending

Ramey said the forecast carries uncertainty and is sensitive to policy changes, court operations and program availability. She advised the committee that the forecast will be updated in regular publications and that the Legislative Council can provide more detailed tables and sensitivity scenarios on request.