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JBC directs staff to draft bill to change how TABOR population growth is calculated after revised Census estimates lower available spending
Summary
Legislative economists told the Joint Budget Committee that a Census Bureau upward revision to Colorado's 2023 population left 24,000 people uncounted in the current TABOR growth calculation; the committee authorized staff to draft a statutory change and legislative declaration to use the most current prior‑year estimate in the limit calculation.
Greg Sovetsky, chief economist at the Legislative Council Staff, told the Joint Budget Committee that revisions the U.S. Census Bureau made to the July 1, 2023 population estimate mean that, under current statute, roughly 24,000 people are not captured in the TABOR limit growth calculation for FY 2025‑26.
Sovetsky explained that current law directs the state controller to use the most recent estimates produced in December to compute the year‑over‑year population change used in the TABOR limit. Because the December 2024 revision increased Colorado's estimated July 1, 2023 population, those 24,000 people are effectively omitted from the growth calculation under the way the law is applied now. That omission reduces the TABOR limit growth factor to 3.2% under current law; using the revised prior‑year estimate instead would yield a 3.6% factor. Sovetsky quantified the fiscal effect: roughly a $76.5 million difference attributable to the methodological choice and a $96–115 million gap relative to the December forecast figures.
Sovetsky and JBC staff urged the committee to consider a narrow statutory change so the TABOR limit more closely reflects the best available population estimate when the controller calculates the annual growth factor. Members discussed tradeoffs: in some years the current method double‑counts increments; in others it omits increments. The change would not guarantee higher limits every year; rather, the proposed approach would reduce the effect of later Census revisions and align the limit more closely with updated population estimates.
Members debated timing. Director Craig Harper and JBC staff warned the committee that March forecast work would need a determination soon to incorporate any change. The committee directed staff (JBC, LCS, OSPB and OLLS) to prepare draft legislation and a legislative declaration explaining the change, and to return with language suitable for introduction. The motion passed without objection. Committee members asked for a legislative declaration noting earlier statutory adjustments and the goal of avoiding both double counts and undercounts.
