State releases Oregon Housing Needs Analysis targets and methodology; agencies warn permits trail goals

The House Housing and Homelessness Committee received an update Jan. 29 on the Oregon Housing Needs Analysis (OHNA), the state’s new framework for housing planning that sets production targets and requires local governments to align actions with identified need.

Aurora Gettle, legislative and policy analyst at the Department of Land Conservation and Development, described the program’s role in shifting the analytic burden of estimating housing need from local governments to the state and said DLCD’s rulemaking will clarify how jurisdictions contextualize state production targets in local plans. "The benefit of that is to have local governments out of the ... analytical burden and instead focus on the actions that they can actually take to meet their needs," DLCD housing services manager Ethan Stuckmeyer said.

Carl Rickadonna, chief economist at the Department of Administrative Services’ Office of Economic Analysis, summarized the study’s headline numbers and method. The OEA and partners divided Oregon into seven regions and stratified need by income; they combined a current need (underproduction and homelessness) and a future need (population and household growth). The office published an annual production target of about 29,500 units; the analysis estimated roughly 96,000 units of current need and about 400,000 units of future need to be addressed across the state.

Rickadonna warned of a wide gap between existing permitting activity and the production target: building permits for new construction in Oregon were about 17,000 in 2023 and fell to roughly 14,000 in 2024, he said, describing the shortfall in blunt terms: "supply, supply, supply." That gap informed the methodology’s emphasis on both near‑term and long‑term production.

DLCD staff walked the committee through how targets are allocated to cities and urban growth boundaries (UGBs), how local governments will be asked to contextualize unit targets by housing types and locations, and how the state will track progress. DLCD said it has completed two of three phases of rulemaking; the remaining rulemaking on capacity and urbanization is due for adoption by Dec. 31, 2025, and some program rules must be in place by the statutory deadline of Jan. 1, 2026.

During questions, committee members asked how second‑home and vacation rental inventories affect local allocations. DLCD staff said the methodology accounts for the impact of second and vacation homes as one component of housing need rather than planning specifically for them. A committee member asked DLCD to provide a follow‑up on land availability in Oregon’s 20 smallest counties; DLCD agreed to consult data staff and respond in writing.

No formal actions or votes were taken on the OHNA during the informational briefing.