State outlines Oregon Housing Needs Analysis, sets annual production target near 29,500 units

The Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, the Department of Administrative Services and Oregon Housing and Community Services presented the Oregon Housing Needs Analysis (ONA) to the Senate Committee on Housing and Development on Jan. 27, 2025, outlining how the state will estimate housing need and allocate production targets to local governments.

The presentation described the ONA as a reform to statewide planning Goal 10 (housing) that shifts emphasis from only calculating land capacity to setting actionable housing production and affordability targets. "The change is really the emphasis on those actions whereas the old program was really focusing on does the city have enough land zone capacity," said Ethan Stuckmeyer, Housing Services Division manager at the Department of Land Conservation and Development.

The technical methodology is administered at the statewide and regional level and then allocated to local governments. "We have 90,000 96,000 for current need, 399,000 for future need. That adds up to an annual production target for the state of about 29,500," said Carl Riccadona, chief economist at the Department of Administrative Services.

Presenters described ONA as a layered estimate. Current need accounts for underproduction and homelessness and is weighted over 10 years; future need (population growth, demographics, vacation/second homes) is weighted over 20 years. Officials said the state divides Oregon into seven geographic regions for analysis and uses income categories tied to area median income when allocating need to cities and urban growth boundaries.

Agency staff said the ONA was created through multiple legislative actions. Legislators passed enabling measures in 2019 and in 2023 (House Bill 2001 and House Bill 2889, as referenced by staff) and subsequent short‑session legislation (House Bill 4063) added requirements for some counties within the Portland metro area. The Department of Administrative Services has published initial housing allocations and production targets; Oregon Housing and Community Services has published production dashboards and equity indicators; DLCD is continuing rulemaking in 2025 with a statutory deadline to adopt administrative rules by Dec. 31, 2025.

Committee members asked about distinctions the ONA makes between rental and ownership demand and how second or vacation homes are treated in allocations. Stuckmeyer said tenure (rent versus own) is part of the planning consideration and that ONA explicitly accounts for the impact of second and vacation homes in allocations to local jurisdictions.

Officials emphasized ONA is intended to reduce the analytical burden on local governments by providing statewide and regional estimates that local governments can use to focus on implementing actions to meet housing need rather than re‑creating the need calculations.

No formal committee action or vote was recorded during the informational presentation.