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Greater Albany district projects gap as enrollment falls; officials say staff reductions may be required
Summary
Business manager Jane presented multi-year budget projections showing a projected 2024–25 shortfall and a longer-term structural deficit if enrollment and state funding do not improve. Board members pressed for enrollment surveys and other steps to understand and address declining student counts.
The Greater Albany Public SD 8J business office presented projections showing the district expects lower state funding tied to second-period Average Daily Membership and other revenue pressures, leaving the district with a narrower margin than budgeted and a potential multi-year structural deficit.
Business financial lead Jane told the board that auditors from Acuity will conduct the 23–24 audit next week and that “if we have the audit to ODE before March 1st, we would receive funding in March.” Jane said the district received property taxes and is currently carrying a positive cash balance but that projected 2024–25 revenues will likely be about $1 million lower than budgeted.
Jane outlined specific components driving the projection: a drop in basic school support of about $672,000 tied to reduced student count in the second-period ADM; a reduction tied to transportation grant reimbursements of roughly $850,000; and higher-than-budgeted substitute and payroll costs. She projected an ending general fund balance near $11.2 million, or about 8.4% of the general fund, under current assumptions.
Board members pressed for more information on the enrollment decline. Jane said the district’s projected floor for 2025–26 is an ADMr of about 8,620 and that the second-period ADM, adjusted historically, suggested a net decline of roughly 195 ADMr from 23–24 to 24–25. She said kindergarten and lower elementary grades showed the biggest decreases while high school enrollment had increased slightly, with freshman class size down.
Board member Roger flagged long-term risk: in the static scenario shown on Jane’s slides, current deficit spending would exhaust reserves in roughly 2½ years without changes to revenue or expenses. “We will need to budget. The goal will be to stay at the 8% fund balance. And so as class sizes decrease, you know, we will decrease staff,” Jane responded.
Superintendent Andy said the district will study whether the fall strike or other factors drove churn, and he suggested surveying families who no longer enroll in district schools to understand choices. Jane and other leaders said some neighboring districts show larger declines, but the capture rate (share of locally born children attending district schools) has dropped from about 91% pre-COVID to roughly 81% post-COVID.
The board did not take any budget actions at the meeting but directed staff to return with additional analyses, including enrollment trend data and a draft 2025–26 projection incorporating proposed state funding changes announced during the legislative session.
