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County consultant forecasts growth: 88,000 housing units today, 212,000 at build-out; district 3 to see disproportionate growth
Summary
Consultant David Farmer presented the county's development forecast tool, describing a growth trajectory that forecasts a substantial rise in housing units and seasonal population and identifies growth hot spots within Citrus County.
David Farmer of Metro Forecasting told the Citrus County Board of County Commissioners that a new interactive development forecast tool projects significant growth across the county and should help staff plan public facilities and services.
Farmer said the county currently has "just under about 88,000 housing units" and that the model forecasts about 212,000 housing units at build-out. "By 2030, you're gonna be adding nearly 9,000 housing units," Farmer said, noting the long time frame to total build-out and the model's uncertainty about exact timing.
The consultant highlighted several practical uses for the forecast: identifying likely high-growth areas, estimating future commercial and industrial floor space needs, locating where new public facilities (for example, fire stations and parks) are likely to be required, and helping the board negotiate impact mitigation when developers propose projects.
Farmer said the model shows district-level shifts in population: "Thirty-two percent of new residents by 2030 are gonna live in district 3," he said, and district 1 is next in projected growth. He told the board the county's population inflection point in the model — the halfway mark toward build-out — likely occurs between 2035 and 2040.
The forecast also flagged nontraditional contributors to transient population: Citrus County has about 33,100 existing RV resort stalls and approximately 3,000 additional entitled RV spaces, Farmer said. He reported a seasonal, transient population of nearly 21,000 people when hotels and RV resorts are included — separate from permanent residents — and noted those visitors bring consumer spending and demand for services.
Farmers and staff described the model as spatially detailed (using Transportation Analysis Zones) and tied to more than 180 demographic variables so the county can forecast commercial demand, development impacts on public facilities, and where to target investments. The consultant said the forecast is within "a half percent" of population forecasting accuracy when validated against other methods and that the county's forecasted trajectory shows momentum compared with historic trends.
Farmer said the next steps are finalizing submodels and the summary report; staff told the board those deliverables were expected later this spring.
Speakers at the session urged commissioners to use the tool during land-use and capital-planning discussions to align infrastructure investments with projected growth and to avoid reactive decision-making.
The presentation will inform land development code changes, impact-fee calculations and priorities in the county's capital improvement planning.
