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Budget outlook steady but enrollment decline and ADA uncertainty worry district staff
Summary
District finance staff briefed the board on the governor’s 2025–26 budget proposal showing modest K–12 growth but warned local Average Daily Attendance declines and post-disaster tax timing could change allocations; enrollment snapshot shows slow post‑COVID declines and preschool enrollment constrained by construction.
District fiscal staff presented a brief update on the governor’s 2025–26 budget proposal and Robla’s enrollment and attendance figures, reporting modest projected per‑student revenue increases but noting significant local uncertainty tied to ADA and tax timing after recent wildfires in Southern California.
Budget staff said the governor’s proposal left K–12 baseline funding without cuts, with projected average increases cited as consistent and the state’s three major revenue sources (sales, corporate and personal income taxes) closely aligned in projections. “One thing is that we will hear is that all K–12 has been lucky because there's no reduction,” a district budget presenter said, adding the 2025–26 proposal included grade-span adjustments that increase revenue for TK to grade 3 class size requirements.
District calculations showed a baseline per-ADA figure around $14,732 and projected revenue roughly tied to a P‑1 ADA projection of 1,786 for the district; staff cautioned those numbers will change if enrollment/ADA shifts. The presenter warned that a difference between state calculations and the governor’s proposal has prompted state-level conversations about final apportionments and that the district will adopt its budget after the May revise.
On enrollment, the district’s census-day snapshot counted 1,894 students on the first Wednesday in October — a 1.5% decrease from the prior year and roughly 7.6% below the ten‑year average. Preschool enrollment was lower on census day (105) largely because of construction constraints; staff noted the preschool had finished the previous year with higher enrollment and expects numbers to ramp back up when classrooms reopen. The district also reported a modest increase in TK entry but said matriculation from preschool to district TK/kindergarten was incomplete and will be examined.
Attendance work led by school staff and county supports showed year‑to‑date improvements: principals credited outreach, early intervention and incentives for improved attendance across sites and noted that ongoing attendance gains are a priority because ADA directly affects revenue.
Ending
Staff said they will monitor ADA and enrollment changes through the spring revise period, finish budget planning ahead of the May revise and return with more detailed fiscal impact estimates tied to ADA scenarios.
