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Vermont’s aging population shrinking peak-earning cohort, JFO presentation says
Summary
A Joint Fiscal Office presentation to the Ways & Means Committee showed Vermont’s post‑pandemic growth was concentrated in younger adults but that the state’s 55–64 prime‑earning cohort declined sharply, with implications for tax revenue, health and care workforce needs and basic‑needs calculations.
Pat, a staff member with the Joint Fiscal Office, told the Ways & Means Committee that post‑pandemic migration and changing age cohorts have altered Vermont’s population makeup and the state’s tax base.
"In 2021 the population swelled by 41,100 people," Pat said, describing the pandemic-era influx that was followed by much smaller net changes in 2022 and 2023. Pat said the state population was "a little under 650,000" in 2023 and that preliminary 2024 estimates show a modest decline that may be revised.
The presentation summarized the Joint Fiscal Office issue brief by Joyce Banchessa and focused on three trends: a decrease in children (ages 0–17), an increase in younger adults (roughly ages 25–39), and a notable decline — about 6,100 people — in the 55–64 cohort that historically contains many of the state’s highest…
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