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Vermont vehicle index shows modest EV share; dealers warn manufacturers may limit gasoline vehicle deliveries under ACC2
Summary
A presentation to the Senate Transportation Committee summarized 2024 Vermont vehicle registration data and warned that the state's Advanced Clean Cars (ACC2) requirement will likely outpace current consumer purchases and dealer inventories unless manufacturers adjust allocations or credits.
Matt Coda, director of government affairs and consultant representing the Vermont Vehicle and Automotive Distributors Association, told the Senate Transportation Committee on Jan. 24 that Vermont's 2024 vehicle registration data show a slow but steady climb in plug-in vehicle registrations and a still-predominant market for gasoline vehicles.
The data, compiled in a Vermont vehicle index Coda said his group produced using Experian AutoCount and other sources, show more than 600,000 total registered vehicles in Vermont and roughly 42,000 new vehicle registrations in 2024. Coda said battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) accounted for about 12% of new registrations in 2024 (a year-over-year increase that he described as stronger than prior years).
Why it matters: The Vermont Advanced Clean Cars regulation, known as ACC2, and related federal and multi-state efforts set manufacturer delivery targets for zero-emission vehicles. Coda said the regulation requires a much higher share of battery-electric or plug-in vehicles from manufacturers than current Vermont registrations reflect. He warned manufacturers could comply by reducing the number of vehicles shipped to Vermont dealerships, narrowing consumer choice, or buying compliance credits from firms with surplus EV production.
Coda described three manufacturer compliance paths he said are available under ACC2 and related credit systems: (1) deliver a higher share of EVs into each state market; (2) lower overall state allocations so a dealer gets fewer total vehicles (reducing variety and volume); or (3) buy credits from manufacturers that overdeliver EVs. He said the credit market and how manufacturers allocate volume are central uncertainties for Vermont dealers.
Coda told the committee the state's incentive program for battery-electric and plug-in vehicles ended in October 2024, but that other market forces '1ike manufacturer lease incentives 'helped sustain EV registrations in late 2024. He cautioned that short lead time from the Agency of Transportation on rebate exhaustion limited dealers' ability to respond.
Coda also noted the regulatory timeline: model-year 2026 vehicles will be the first to fall under ACC2 requirements as they are delivered in mid-2025, and he said current Vermont registration trends (a 2–3% annual increase in EV share by his estimate) are well below the shares ACC2 will ultimately require.
'If manufacturers respond by lowering state allocations or shifting deliveries,' Coda said, 'Vermont consumers may find fewer gasoline models available locally and may purchase across state lines and register vehicles in Vermont.'
Ending: Coda said dealers are investing in EV charging at their facilities and that dealers are supportive of EVs "as long as that's what the consumers want and they can provide that vehicle." He offered to provide more granular lease and sales data to the committee on request.
