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Demographic study shows flat near-term enrollment; consultant urges new buildings and competitiveness to address overcrowding
Summary
An independent demographic analysis presented to the Berkeley County Schools board projected modest enrollment scenarios driven by job growth and declining birth rates, warned of rising retiree population and private/charter competition, and recommended new facilities and strategies to retain market share.
A demographic and enrollment study presented Jan. 21 to the Berkeley County Schools Board of Education warned that county enrollment growth has slowed since the pandemic and urged the district to prioritize facilities and competitiveness to address overcrowding and market-share losses to private and charter schools.
Preston Smith, demographer, presented data showing a range of enrollment scenarios for the next decade. Smith told the board that the district’s enrollment is strongly correlated with local job growth: "For every 4 new jobs you get in the county, you're gonna get 1 new student," he said. That local economic link, Smith said, means hiring and regional job trends will drive future student counts more than new residential construction within the county.
Key findings: Smith reported the county had strong growth before COVID but is now…
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